Study: Presidential Elections Can Sway Home Sales

If the current election unfolds similar to earlier ones, the process will impact home sales more than the policies of the person who actually wins. If so, home sales will slip in June and rebound in Nov., with pent-up demand driving a strong real estate market through spring.

NEW YORK – The months leading up to a presidential election are often lackluster for home sales, which then tend to rebound right after the election regardless of the results, finds a new analysis produced for The Real Deal by Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller.

Between June and October, home sales have been 12.7% weaker in presidential election years compared with non-election years, the study shows. Home sales then recover in November and December, catching up to and even passing levels not seen since the beginning of the year.

“Election years are always the toughest years because people are hesitant,” says Stephen Kliegerman of Halstead Property Development Marketing. “They’re waiting to see an outcome.”

For the analysis, Miller tracked co-op purchases in New York over three presidential election years and compared them to non-presidential years. Through June to October during presidential election years, he found that home sales were weaker compared to non-election years. September tended to show the biggest difference.

Then, “beginning in November during an election year, sales overpower their non-election year counterpart, with the release of pent-up demand occurring well into the spring,” Miller says.

Source: “This Is How Presidential Elections Really Affect Home Sales,” The Real Deal (Feb. 17, 2020)